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How much have changes in the international political system after 9-11 influenced the Northern Ireland peace process? What precisely is the status of the process now, given its various ongoing crises? Researchers at Queens University of Belfast, have been assessing the situation through interviews with politicians, community group leaders, activists, members of think-tanks, the civic forum and others, and bringing them together to discuss the issues raised.

Key Findings

Peace and politics disconnect

• The peace and political processes have become disconnected, and the impasse is no longer seen as automatically jeopardising the province's relative peace. 
  
• Concerns continue that the high level of non-lethal violence in Northern Ireland is being disregarded, but there has been a sharp fall in political killings.
  
• In trying to stop violence and deal with the effects of paramilitary feuds, people involved locally frequently see politicians as a hindrance rather than a help. 

International dimension

• International opinion inversely affects Republicans as international changes and developments influence their decisions on political strategies.
  
• This is not the case for other political players. However, international opinion is no longer seen as acting in a partisan way, in favour of Republicans and Nationalists.
  
• Republicans have been more sensitive to the events of 9/11 and their aftermath than other political groups. Researchers found broad acceptance, including among Unionists, that the events in New York had narrowed the Republican movement's options, making any return to the Provisional IRA's long war counter-productive and highly improbable.
  
• Recent steps taken by the Republican movement, including announcing the end of the armed struggle and de-commissioning their weapons, underscore this point. 

Concerns amid changed context

• There is concern that fixing the political process will not prove sufficient by itself to move Northern Ireland beyond its current cold peace. This has shown itself in increased social segregation and the political polarisation of the two communities.
  
• Creation of a province free of paramilitary activity is unlikely in the medium term. Some fear it might develop into a mafia society due to paramilitaries’ continuing involvement in crime.
  
• Along with the setting up the Northern Ireland Human Rights and Equality Commissions, the Belfast Agreement altered the institutional and political environment in a way which affected how local community activists and others could influence the political process.
  
• Most grassroots action groups, largely focussed on social and policy issues, interpret their impact at a local and individual level. They do not necessarily see any dialogue between the top-down political process and bottom-up peace building.
  
• The Agreement shifted policy-making to the new institutions, and so changed the avenues to political influence used for decades.
  
• There is very little evidence that the new structures have managed to reduce communal conflict or respond to new types of violence.   

About the Study

This study was led by Professor Adrian Guelke, of the School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy, Queen’s University of Belfast. Dr Christopher Farrington, now at University College, Dublin, was the report’s author. Research included more than 30 semi-structured, in-depth interviews, as well as observer participation and informal interviews with politicians, community group leaders, activists, members of think-tanks and of the civic forum and others. Two conferences were held in which the findings of the research were disseminated and papers presented on the international and civil society dimensions of the difficulties in the peace process.

Key words

Northern Ireland, politics, democracy, sectarianism, nationalism

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