A new study charting attitudes towards religion over time offers the UK's religious leaders cause for alarm. Findings suggest a marked decline in the population's religious commitment. And, if the current trend continues, argues researcher Dr David Voas, the consequences for religious adherence will be dramatic within the next generation or two.
This forecast is based on a study of British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data and cross-sectional data from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) surveys (1983 to 2002). Use of these sources enabled researchers to chart the waxing and waning of religious identification over time and over people's lives, and to see how belief and practice in one generation are related to those that follow.
Findings reveal that if neither of a child's parents attend a religious service at least once a month, or identify with a religion, the chances of the child doing so are negligible. Yet, even two religious parents have only a 50/50 chance on passing on their faith to their child. And if only one parent is religious then this likelihood is halved. "What these results suggest," Dr Voas points out, "is that in Britain institutional religion now has a half-life of one generation, to borrow the terminology of radioactive decay.
"The generation now in middle age," he continues, "has produced children who are half as likely to attend church, to identify with a religion, or to believe that religion is important. In other words, religious commitment has halved in one generation and projecting that halving forward to the next generation and the next has fairly dramatic consequences. The figures show a decline whatever measure of religious involvement is used, from regular attendance to simple religious belief. And, interestingly, it is not true to say that religious decline is largely a product of the 1960s." Intergenerational decline in religiosity can be observed as far back as there are data available: at least to the Second World War.
The study further indicates that unless children are brought up in a religious faith they are highly unlikely to develop this later in life. "Unless you have grown up with, for example, the rituals of the Church of England then you are likely to find them alien and unappealing as an adult," he suggests. "Secularisation changes the environment in which children are raised and the likelihood of effective religious socialisation," he concludes. "By the time people reach adulthood their views on religion have been formed and tend not to change."